Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 19.747844 21.487018 23.409868 25.713748 28.426942 31.556898 35.495900
2024-12-15 16.932351 19.180914 21.851298 25.327484 29.848085 35.710055 44.233862
2024-12-22 15.051172 17.548907 20.675517 25.017203 31.149912 39.990844 54.866667
2024-12-29 13.705580 16.335332 19.764900 24.784439 32.397828 44.506857 68.205877
2025-01-05 12.698525 15.404458 19.053391 24.637108 33.659419 49.417545 85.655570
2025-01-12 11.782413 14.480561 18.211218 24.119291 34.163412 53.167464 104.171717
2025-01-19 11.422661 14.270223 18.335044 25.068764 37.341840 63.459760 154.705226
2025-01-26 10.825167 13.662044 17.793635 24.840051 38.299770 69.487559 206.362053
2025-02-02 10.376044 13.226381 17.460737 24.897957 39.818337 77.830693 304.966696
2025-02-09 10.013022 12.885402 17.234679 25.097704 41.679671 88.534343 524.153537
2025-02-16 9.660752 12.532566 16.952503 25.147247 43.224741 99.701576 1088.355448
2025-02-23 9.286117 12.120012 16.536030 24.884574 43.972910 108.919789 3039.787058
2025-03-02 8.984500 11.806936 16.267404 24.891295 45.463222 123.457464 NaN
2025-03-09 8.666842 11.450901 15.899894 24.657724 46.292044 136.571948 NaN
2025-03-16 8.375406 11.120243 15.551480 24.421242 47.072408 151.305164 NaN
2025-03-23 8.113962 10.823421 15.240300 24.225122 47.936781 169.005471 NaN
2025-03-30 7.882930 10.563474 14.975379 24.095875 48.988279 191.581882 NaN
2025-04-06 7.615211 10.231983 14.563198 23.602525 48.777725 204.096073 NaN
2025-04-13 7.565532 10.251621 14.778003 24.520297 53.550299 290.841680 NaN
2025-04-20 7.364587 10.012707 14.506988 24.301171 54.320536 335.687288 NaN
2025-04-27 7.212047 9.847340 14.360991 24.357554 56.168412 422.593529 NaN
2025-05-04 7.085493 9.719564 14.276416 24.550305 58.667431 578.359173 NaN
2025-05-11 6.948669 9.568556 14.138653 24.598166 60.636647 800.464793 NaN